Your Technicals Are Backwards too!
I forgot to mention a few things about your fundamentals. When earnings are the lowest and industry is distressed, those negative earnings that exist may not be "typical" and as such as the cycle improves what you are actually paying might reflect a PE of 1 or less when actually it looks like you are paying a PE of 200 or more. Perpetual secular growers will trade at high multiples forever until the secular story is almost over. When growth stories are near peaks PEs may be quite reasonable but in fact if you would adjust it to what it may be in 1 or 2 years from now or what it averaged over that time it might be negative. Earnings forecasts are terrible just like your returns HAHAA, buddy!
What about combining fundamentals like PEG price to earnings to growth rate?
Those don't work either. A cyclical industry should be overpaid for when it's early on as earnings will likely accelerate and grow at an increasing pace and so overpaying for the miniscule growth i actually the time to buy at a PEG of say 2-4, and then when growth has increased for so long and the industry peaks you should actually sell at a PEG of 0.50 to 1. Many "growth at a reasonable price" have it exactly backwards! You might too! too bad, you lose!
I could go down the line and repeat this for any fundamental you throw at me. Additionally the most superior numbers tend to be an abberation and subject to reversion.
Okay, so clearly if it's not fundamentals, it's technicals, right? NO! WRONG! You lose again! I win!
Your assets are mine! THank you very much!
Technicals are usually a way to get you to buy higher hoping someone shows up at an even higher price. Oh a stock made new highs quick everyone buy. Meanwhile I'm selling a stock I already bought before it broke out and you're left holding my bag while I go shopping with your money and your wife leaves you for guys like me! Too harsh? my bad, I can't help who she likes.
Shorting into the hole, same problem, I'm ahead of you by a step.
Look, whenever there is every reason to buy the stock and everyone looking for those same reason comes across these obvious reasons, you're too late, the trade is too crowded and unless you're early on in a secular growth story that is the engine powering the economy or the primary bennifactor from debt expansion of the economy or global growth, it's probably not going to work. I fyou could construct a spreadsheet that gave you the most top 10 common reason people buy a stock and find the list where none of the indicators make the top 100 list, you'd probably be better off.
Your technicals suck, the fact is a monkey throwing darts beats 80% of fund managers and they are experienced and know all this stuff and have read all the books. But there money goes somewhere, and is it to you when you do the same thing as them only you're less good at it?
No! It goes to me! thank you very much!
I win, you lose!
-Opions Asshole.
What about combining fundamentals like PEG price to earnings to growth rate?
Those don't work either. A cyclical industry should be overpaid for when it's early on as earnings will likely accelerate and grow at an increasing pace and so overpaying for the miniscule growth i actually the time to buy at a PEG of say 2-4, and then when growth has increased for so long and the industry peaks you should actually sell at a PEG of 0.50 to 1. Many "growth at a reasonable price" have it exactly backwards! You might too! too bad, you lose!
I could go down the line and repeat this for any fundamental you throw at me. Additionally the most superior numbers tend to be an abberation and subject to reversion.
Okay, so clearly if it's not fundamentals, it's technicals, right? NO! WRONG! You lose again! I win!
Your assets are mine! THank you very much!
Technicals are usually a way to get you to buy higher hoping someone shows up at an even higher price. Oh a stock made new highs quick everyone buy. Meanwhile I'm selling a stock I already bought before it broke out and you're left holding my bag while I go shopping with your money and your wife leaves you for guys like me! Too harsh? my bad, I can't help who she likes.
Shorting into the hole, same problem, I'm ahead of you by a step.
Look, whenever there is every reason to buy the stock and everyone looking for those same reason comes across these obvious reasons, you're too late, the trade is too crowded and unless you're early on in a secular growth story that is the engine powering the economy or the primary bennifactor from debt expansion of the economy or global growth, it's probably not going to work. I fyou could construct a spreadsheet that gave you the most top 10 common reason people buy a stock and find the list where none of the indicators make the top 100 list, you'd probably be better off.
Your technicals suck, the fact is a monkey throwing darts beats 80% of fund managers and they are experienced and know all this stuff and have read all the books. But there money goes somewhere, and is it to you when you do the same thing as them only you're less good at it?
No! It goes to me! thank you very much!
I win, you lose!
-Opions Asshole.
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